Macroeconomic Outlook: From Delta to Data to Politics, Noisy Quarter Rattles Markets

Despite the Noise, We Continue To Trust in America's Resilience

In the third quarter, capital markets contended with the prolonged COVID-19  pandemic, weakening or ambiguous economic data, global turmoil related to events in Afghanistan, China and other regions, US politics, the Federal Reserve, inflation, interest rates, and extreme weather systems. That is a lot!

In these uncertain times, it’s very hard  to track all the moving parts and even harder to stay above the short-term  fray to focus on the big picture. Our November 2021 Macroeconomic Outlook  aims to make sense of all the noise in a still-strong and resilient market environment.

Key Takeaways

  • We must be prepared for noise in the capital markets as governments, companies and individuals work to find their footing in the wake of the pandemic.
  • Healthy corporate earnings and flat price-to-earnings ratios are a foundation for robust markets and GDP growth rolling into next year.
  • A post-pandemic environment with reasonably low interest rates, a normalized supply chain and consumers who are in a very good financial position could provide a very favorable environment for a continuation of the economic and investment trends of the past few months.