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Macroeconomic Outlook: What a Difference a Year Makes

Vaccine Deployment and Economic Momentum Spark Optimism


As vaccines turn to vaccinations in the United States and select other regions, their economies have in turn accelerated. The correlation, as expected, is unleashing pent-up consumer demand and the corporate investment to meet it.

In his May 2021 macroeconomic outlook, Chief Investment Officer Rick Pitcairn assesses global growth projections and how they may translate to continued early-cycle conditions and a resilient bull market. While the short- to medium-term looks promising, a novel virus and the implications of vaccine logistics and uptake is the major wild card.


Key Takeaways

  • The tale of economic recovery is globally dependent on vaccine distribution. While the US, China, the UK, and parts of Europe are expected to carry global growth, emerging markets unable to contain the virus may experience a prolonged recovery.

  • Despite high valuations, exceptionally low interest rates and stimulus-aided growth may continue to spur equity gains, even with the potential for volatility or a 10-12% pullback.

  • COVID-19 remains the dominant risk to capital markets, with other areas to monitor including proposed tax increases and retail speculation.

  • Another risk is being out of stocks as markets rise. Pitcairn believes safety comes through a disciplined, diversified portfolio construction.

 

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About Pitcairn

Pitcairn is a true family office and leader in helping families navigate the challenges and opportunities created by the interplay of family and financial dynamics. Through Wealth Momentum®, an experience-based family office model, Pitcairn helps families achieve a more effective and complete experience. Since its inception, Pitcairn has partnered with some of the world’s wealthiest families to meet their needs and drive better outcomes – year to year, decade to decade, generation to generation. Today, Pitcairn is recognized as an innovator, guiding families through generational transitions and redefining the industry standard for family offices. The firm is located in Philadelphia, with offices in New York and Washington, DC and a network of resources around the world.