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The Market in Five Charts: February 2026

Pitcairn Insights

February 12, 2026

A Strong Start, Broadening Leadership, and the Power of AI

In February’s Market in Five Charts, Rick Pitcairn highlights several encouraging signals emerging early in 2026—alongside important themes investors should be watching closely.

The market rose 1.5% in January, a historically constructive sign. When January finishes in positive territory, markets have tended to deliver strong full-year returns, with gains occurring the vast majority of the time. While no indicator is definitive, it adds to a growing list of supportive data points.

Market Breadth Is Improving

Another healthy development: leadership is broadening. Smaller stocks within the S&P 500 have recently outperformed larger names, a shift from last year’s narrow rally dominated by a handful of mega-cap technology stocks. Broader participation often creates a more durable market foundation.

The 10-Year Treasury Remains Key

With a new Fed chair in place, Rick reiterates his long-held view that the 10-year Treasury yield is the most important financial statistic in the world. How policymakers manage the Fed’s balance sheet—and how bond markets respond—will have meaningful implications for the economy and markets in 2026.

AI: Disruption and Opportunity

Artificial intelligence continues to reshape investor expectations. The sharp selloff in software stocks reflects fears that AI could disrupt traditional business models.

At the same time, major AI-related initiatives—including the announced combination of SpaceX and xAI underscore the scale of innovation underway.

Rick views this period as both disruptive and historic. Despite geopolitical uncertainty and policy debates, technological progress continues at an extraordinary pace.

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Disclaimer: Pitcairn Wealth Advisors LLC (“PWA”) is a registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Additional information about PWA, including our registration status, fees, and services is available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. This material was prepared solely for informational, illustrative, and convenience purposes only and all users should be guided accordingly. All information, opinions, and estimates contained herein are given as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. PWA and its affiliates (jointly referred to as “Pitcairn”) do not make any representations as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether referenced or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility thereof. As Pitcairn does not provide legal services, all users are advised to seek the advice of independent legal and tax counsel prior to relying upon or acting upon any information contained herein. The performance numbers displayed to the user may have been adversely or favorably impacted by events and economic conditions that will not prevail in the future. Past investment performance is not indicative of future results. The indices discussed are unmanaged and do not incur management fees, transaction costs, or other expenses associated with investable products. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Projections are based on models that assume normally distributed outcomes which may not reflect actual experience. Consistent with its obligation to obtain “best execution,” Pitcairn, in exercising its investment discretion over advisory or fiduciary assets in client accounts, may allocate orders for the purchase, sale, or exchange of securities for the account to such brokers and dealers for execution on such markets, at such prices, and at such commission rates as, in the good faith judgment of Pitcairn, will be in the best interest of the account, taking into consideration in the selection of such broker and dealer, not only the available prices and rates of brokerage commissions, but also other relevant factors (such as, without limitation, execution capabilities, products, research or services provided by such brokers or dealers which are expected to provide lawful and appropriate assistance to Pitcairn in the performance of its investment decision making responsibilities). This material should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. This material is provided for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest or any other security or financial instrument.

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