The Bull Market Has More Room to Run
Last month, Chairman & Chief Global Strategist Rick Pitcairn raised the possibility that markets had already pulled forward most of their 2026 gains. A lot has changed since then. Three developments — a ceasefire agreement in the Iran conflict, the arrival of a new Federal Reserve chair, and the massive SpaceX IPO — have combined to push markets meaningfully higher. This month, Rick calls it as he sees it.
The S&P 500 is at record levels, well above its 200-day moving average, and market sentiment still reads as measured rather than euphoric. That matters: when bull markets near their end, sentiment tends to run hot. It isn’t running hot yet. Meanwhile, breadth has improved considerably. The Russell 2000 has roughly doubled the S&P’s return so far this year, a signal that this is not a repeat of 1999, where a handful of names carried everything and the rest of the market lagged.
A third data point reinforces the constructive case: household cash levels are at their highest point since 1990. History suggests that cash-rich environments tend to sustain, not end, bull market cycles. Add the prospect of major IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI’s ChatGPT, and there is a credible case that capital continues moving into markets through the summer, despite cautionary commentary from prominent voices like Ray Dalio and Howard Marks.
On the Fed, the picture is more nuanced. Markets briefly moved to price in a rate increase rather than a cut under new chair Kevin Warsh. But falling oil prices historically correlate with Fed easing, and the Iran ceasefire appears designed, in part, to lower energy prices ahead of the midterms. Whether Warsh moves in September will depend on the data.
What Rick finds most instructive is the Greenspan parallel. Alan Greenspan, who passed away this week at 100, led the Fed through the internet revolution with a preference for surprise over explicit forward guidance, and a deliberate avoidance of using the Fed balance sheet to prop up Treasury markets. Warsh has signaled a similar independent streak. If that holds, it suggests a Fed willing to act outside of expectations — which, Rick argues, may be exactly what this market needs.
Rick Pitcairn is Chairman and Chief Global Strategist at Pitcairn. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change. This commentary is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.